2023 Monsoon : Rainfall's Slow Recovery in the Country
25 September 2023
Rainfall's Slow Recovery in the Country
The progress of the 2023 monsoon season in India has been closely watched by all.
Starting with an 11% rainfall deficit compared to the long-term average (LPA), the situation has gradually improved but at a slow pace.
Over the course of September, the deficit reduced from 8% to 6%, with anything above 4% of LPA being considered below normal. In the initial months, June had a 10% deficit, which was compensated by a 13% surplus in July.
The monsoon was at 105% of LPA at the season's halfway point but took a significant hit in August, with a 35% shortfall. However, September has seen a remarkable recovery, thanks to factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), countering the influence of El Nino.
As the month nears its end, a 2% deficit needs to be offset for the monsoon season to reach 'normal' status. The outcome remains uncertain, with the monsoon likely to conclude either at the higher end of 'below normal' or the lower end of 'normal'.