A strong El Niño is likely to develop by mid-2026, with a 61% chance between May and July, as per global weather agencies.

This ocean-atmosphere phenomenon may significantly impact India’s monsoon, raising concerns of below-normal rainfall during June to September.

Warmer Pacific waters and weakening trade winds are already being observed, indicating a shift from the current weak La Niña conditions.

Typically, El Niño leads to reduced southwest monsoon rains over India, though a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could partly balance the impact.

Experts say other factors like the Madden-Julian Oscillation will also influence rainfall patterns, making the overall monsoon outlook uncertain this season.