The city of Mumbai has seen good rains in the month of September. In fact, Mumbai has already surpassed its monthly mean of 383.5 mm and recorded 395.9 mm so far.
There are a few days left in September and now we can see some rains over Mumbai for the rest of the month. Rains will be mostly moderate and isolated heavy in pockets for both today and tomorrow. Thereafter, on September 29 and 30, rainfall will become light.
An east-west trough is extending from North Coastal Andhra Pradesh across Telangana right up to Konkan. The proximity of the trough from Mumbai will give rain. A Cyclonic Circulation is also developing by tomorrow embedded in the trough itself. Thus, rains will be seen over Mumbai until the end of the month of varied intensity.
The weekend saw some rains for the national capital however, now Delhi and the NCR region are expected to remain dry for the next many days.
In fact, the withdrawal process of the southwest monsoon has begun from parts of Rajasthan and in a few days, the capital city of Delhi will also follow suit. However, the withdrawal will be late this year as it was in the past two years as well. Delhi and the NCR region's Monsoon withdrawal date is September 25.
Anticipate above-average daytime temperatures around 36-37°C and nighttime lows of 24-25°C due to dry conditions.
However, as far as humidity is concerned, we can expect humid conditions to reduce slightly and pleasant conditions in the evening as well as morning hours. Afternoons however will remain slightly sultry in nature.
With the withdrawal process already beginning over Rajasthan, change in weather conditions will be seen over Delhi as well with low clouds, drop in humidity levels and absence of rainfall activity. Such weather conditions will continue even after the monsoon withdraws from Delhi.
The progress of the 2023 monsoon season in India has been closely watched by all.
Starting with an 11% rainfall deficit compared to the long-term average (LPA), the situation has gradually improved but at a slow pace.
Over the course of September, the deficit reduced from 8% to 6%, with anything above 4% of LPA being considered below normal. In the initial months, June had a 10% deficit, which was compensated by a 13% surplus in July.
The monsoon was at 105% of LPA at the season's halfway point but took a significant hit in August, with a 35% shortfall. However, September has seen a remarkable recovery, thanks to factors like the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), countering the influence of El Nino.
As the month nears its end, a 2% deficit needs to be offset for the monsoon season to reach 'normal' status. The outcome remains uncertain, with the monsoon likely to conclude either at the higher end of 'below normal' or the lower end of 'normal'.
On the auspicious occasion of Day 5 Visarjan, let's take a look at the weather forecast across various regions of India.
In the northeastern parts of the country, including Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, and north Chhattisgarh, there's a possibility of experiencing moderate to heavy rain, so it's advisable to be prepared for wet conditions during the celebrations.
Moving to other regions, Vidarbha, Telangana, Konkan and Goa, Marathwada, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep, and Uttarakhand may witness light to moderate rain with occasional heavy spells. It's essential to keep an eye on the skies in these areas.
For those celebrating in East Rajasthan, parts of Uttar Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, and coastal Andhra Pradesh, expect light to moderate rain, which may add a refreshing touch to the festivities.
Lastly, in west Uttar Pradesh, coastal Karnataka, and Saurashtra and Kutch, light rain is possible, so you might want to have your umbrellas handy just in case.
As we embrace the spirit of Ganesh Chaturthi and welcome the monsoon showers, Weather&Radar India team is excited to invite all our users to share the magic of this season with us!
Ganesh Chaturthi, a time of vibrant celebrations and devotion, brings communities together. We want to see your beautifully adorned festivities, colorful processions, and the joyous atmosphere that fills your surroundings.