Global consequence - El Niño is back

Current forecasts suggest that the El Niño climate phenomenon is set to develop in the Pacific in the coming months, after nearly two years of mild La Niña conditions.

This shift could have consequences for the weather worldwide.

"El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)" is a more or less regular cycle consisting of phases characterised by El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña.

During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are significantly higher than average, whilst during La Niña they are significantly lower. Furthermore, during El Niño, the normally steady trade winds virtually come to a standstill.

The upcoming El Niño phase has a particular impact on the weather in the Pacific region: the South American Pacific coast typically experiences much higher rainfall, whilst Southeast Asia and the Amazon region are drier than usual.

Changes in atmospheric circulation can also have an impact on regions far away, including southern and eastern Africa. In the North Atlantic, El Niño reduces the activity of tropical cyclones. However, it is not entirely clear whether, and to what extent, El Niño also influences our weather in Europe.

During El Niño, the exceptionally warm Pacific releases an enormous amount of energy into the atmosphere, which can further increase the global average temperature. Given the history of La Niña and the ongoing effects of climate change, it is not unlikely that 2026 will be the warmest year on record globally.