Monsoon 2024 Highlights: End of Season & October Outlook

The Southwest Monsoon started retreating from Western Rajasthan on September 17, and it is expected to fully withdraw by mid-October.

This year’s monsoon brought varied weather across India. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), most parts of the country saw normal to above-normal rainfall. However, Northeast India experienced below-normal rain.

The monsoon began slowly in June but gained momentum in July, August, and September. The season featured multiple low-pressure systems, including six depressions, which led to heavy rain and flooding, particularly in Gujarat and Rajasthan.

September was especially eventful, with three low-pressure systems. Two of them intensified into deep depressions, leading to heavy downpours in Bihar, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Sikkim from September 26 to 29, worsening the flood situation.

Unfortunately, the monsoon also brought destruction. Floods and heavy rains caused significant loss of life, with Assam, Madhya Pradesh, and Kerala being the hardest hit.

A tragic 388 people lost their lives due to thunderstorms or lightning strikes in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh.

This monsoon saw the highest number of very heavy rainfall events (115.6 to 204.4 mm) in the past five years, with weather stations reporting these events 525 times. Extremely heavy rain events (above 204.5 mm) were also unusually frequent, happening 96 times.

Looking ahead, the Northeast Monsoon is expected to be slightly above normal. While it's still too early to predict the exact impact, models suggest that Northwest, Northeast, and Southernmost India might receive below-average rainfall.

For October, forecasts indicate above-average rainfall in many areas, though the regions mentioned above could see normal to below-average amounts.

October is expected to be warmer than usual, with both minimum and maximum temperatures predicted to be above average.

Gujarat is likely to remain mostly dry, except for the southern regions, which might get light showers during the Navratri festival.