Pre-Monsoon Time in India: Here's Why Cyclones Are So Difficult to Predict

It's May and people residing along the coast of Bay of Bengal are waiting for the news about the likely development of cyclone "Asani". However, meteorologists always ask them to wait and to keep checking the updates. Why can't they predict the landfall earlier?

Forecasting of the trajectory and intensity of tropical cyclones has never been easy. The technological advancement and better forecasting models have made an early warning system very effective. It could successfully prevent loss of lives and property in the recent years. And yet the changing climate keeps adding complexity to accurate predictions.

Slow-moving cyclones often exhibit very erratic behavior, changing paths, recurving, taking U-turns and even dissipating completely without reaching the land.

With warming sea temperatures due to climate change the cyclones can intensify extremely rapidly, by far exceeding the forecasted timeframe. Rapid intensification remains the biggest challenge in cyclone forecasting.

The ability to forecast cyclones has improved manifold over the last decades, however further research, data, as well as new meteorological tools and models will help to enhance it even further. Stay informed about all the developments in the Bay of Bengal with our WindRadar.