Delayed Onset of Southwest Monsoon 2023 to Affect Farmers in Central India, Telangana, and Delhi-NCR

The arrival of the Southwest monsoon season is a highly anticipated event for millions of people, who rely on agriculture as a source of livelihood.

The monsoon season, which typically lasts from June to September, is critical for India's agricultural sector, as it accounts for over 70% of the country's annual rainfall.

The onset of the monsoon season brings with it a mix of hope and fear for the fraternity of Indian farmers, who eagerly await the rains for a successful harvest, but also fear the possibility of delayed or deficient rainfall that could lead to crop failure and financial hardship.

Professor Elena Surovyatkina has been at the forefront of aiding Indian farmers by delivering accurate long-term forecasts of the monsoon onset. This year, the anticipation of the onset days has been strengthened due to the likelihood of an El Niño year.

Surovyatkina has been providing detailed information about estimations for intermittent rain periods, dry spells, and the commencement of persistent rains.

By knowing the exact time and location of the monsoon onset, as well as the possibility of a dry spell following the initial rainfall, farmers can make well-informed decisions about planting at the appropriate time.

This year, pre-monsoon temperatures in the Central, North, and Northwest parts of India are expected to be slightly cooler than in the previous year. However, the advance of the monsoon may not be as well-organized as desired.

In March, a cold anomaly zone developed over Telangana, the Central, and Southern regions of India, which later shifted to the North in April.

These below-average temperatures are predicted to persist until May and early June, prior to the onset of the monsoon. The Central part, Telangana, and Delhi are experiencing favorable conditions that may delay the onset of the monsoon.

During March and April, the Southern Indian Ocean experienced higher air temperatures than usual. Meanwhile, the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean was gradually warming up after experiencing below-average La Niña temperatures for almost three years.

This warming suggests a potential transition to El Niño conditions, which is happening slowly. As a result, in June when the Southwest monsoon arrives, the equatorial Pacific Ocean will be in an unstable neutral state, causing alternating intermittent rains and dry spells before the monsoon settles.

Intermittent pre-monsoon rains are likely to occur in Central India before June 15. Farmers should be aware that a dry spell may occur until June 26, after which continuous monsoon rainfall is expected.

Pre-monsoon weather conditions in Northern Telangana are relatively milder compared to Central India. Occasional pre-monsoon showers may occur before June 19, but there's a high probability of a dry spell between June 19 and 24. Persistent monsoon rainfall is expected from June 24 onwards.

The Delhi-NCR region may experience pre-monsoon rains towards the end of June. However, the onset of monsoon rainfall is expected after July 12. There may be dry spells between July 19 and 27, but more persistent monsoon rainfall is expected from July 27 onwards.

Please note that the predicted dates may have a margin of error of /- 4 days.