Climate models are indicating early signals of a possible El Niño developing in the second half of 2026.

Forecasts suggest it may strengthen during the Indian monsoon and peak in the Northern Hemisphere winter, increasing the risk of below-normal rainfall over India.

The ongoing La Niña is weakening, and ENSO-neutral conditions are expected by summer, paving the way for a Pacific flip.

Experts warn that an evolving El Niño has a higher chance of delaying monsoon onset, increasing heatwaves, and affecting crop output.

Rising global temperatures are also making ENSO events more frequent and unpredictable.