Weather & Radar India brings you the long-term forecast of monsoon onset by Prof. Elena Surovyatkina. She has accurately predicted the onset and withdrawal dates of 6 consecutive monsoon seasons.

The transition to the Southwest Monsoon over the central part of India (intersection of Maharashtra, Telangana & Chhattisgarh) in the Eastern Ghats region is likely to begin with intermittent rains between 14-18 June. It is highly likely that a dry spell will occur in the period of 19-26 June. After 26 June, continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected.

Monsoon is likely to reach Northern Telangana from 15 June. The intermittent rains may appear in the period of 14 -20 June. With high probability, a dry spell will occur between 20-29 June. The continuous monsoon rainfalls are expected after 29 June.

Rains are likely to reach the Delhi region after 10 July 2022. Intermittent rains and short dry spells are possible till 29 July. A longer dry spell is likely to occur between 29 July and 14 August.

After 14 August, more persistent monsoon rainfalls are possible over the region.

This forecast follows a different method to determine the onset dates. Two regions in the areas of the Eastern Ghats (EG) and North Pakistan (NP) act as tipping elements where critical temperature and relative humidity are measured.

On the eve of the onset of the monsoon in the central part of India, both temperature and relative humidity in the two tipping elements become equal and monsoon begins. The uncertainty of the forecasted dates is /- 4 days.

Prof. Dr. Dr. Sc. Elena Surovyatkina is a climate scientist and a leader of monsoon research group at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam, Germany and a principal researcher at Space Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow, Russia.

Her monsoon onset forecast strives to help Indian farmers to plan the sowing/planting around the monsoon dates. Knowing the dates of intermittent rains period, dry spells and continuous rainfall assists farmers in choosing the right crops and the right time for planting.