The Northeast Monsoon, Tamil Nadu’s key rainy season, has turned slightly weak across South India.

While October 2025 recorded a healthy surplus of 43% rainfall, November’s irregular activity has erased much of the gain.

Tamil Nadu’s 41% excess has now flipped to a 10% shortfall, and Kerala faces a 27% deficit. Recent moderate showers brought temporary relief, but monsoon strength will ease further as the current weather system shifts toward the Arabian Sea.

A new low-pressure area is expected over the Southeast Bay of Bengal around 21–22 November, which could intensify into a storm.

If it develops, rainfall is likely to increase again across Tamil Nadu and Kerala next week.