El Niño conditions are strengthening rapidly across the equatorial Pacific, with both surface and deeper ocean temperatures rising.

The Niño 3.4 index, a key indicator used to track El Niño, has maintained a temperature anomaly of around 1.8°C for four weeks and could reach or exceed 2°C during September.

The event is expected to peak around November-December 2026, with its influence potentially continuing into early 2027. Such strong El Niño conditions can alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide.

Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral but could turn positive in the coming months. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is also not favourable for the formation of any major monsoon system over Indian seas during the next two weeks.