India's southwest monsoon has remained weaker than normal this season, leaving the country with a 24% rainfall deficit between June 1 and July 16.

After a slow start in June, an active weather system in early July briefly reduced the shortfall, but monsoon activity weakened again as no fresh systems developed over the Bay of Bengal.

The current low-pressure area over eastern India is expected to bring moderate to heavy rain across Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, East Uttar Pradesh, Vidarbha and East Madhya Pradesh over the next few days.

A larger change in the weather pattern is expected from July 24 onward, as upper-level atmospheric conditions become more favourable for the southwest monsoon.

This is likely to shift the rain belt towards Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and East Rajasthan between July 25 and July 28, bringing more widespread rainfall.

The expected revival could halt the rise in India's seasonal rainfall deficit and gradually improve the overall monsoon performance. If the forecast holds, the all-India rainfall deficit is likely to reduce further by the end of July.