Our monsoon recovered strongly in July, but El Niño is emerging as a concern for the remaining season.

July rainfall was around 1% above normal, helping reduce the rainfall deficit and allowing farmers to catch up on delayed sowing.

However, the IMD expects August rainfall to remain below normal as moderate El Niño conditions strengthen over the Pacific.

Uneven or prolonged dry spells could affect crops that depend heavily on monsoon rainfall, especially in areas with limited irrigation.

This could also put some pressure on food supplies and prices. However, El Niño does not always lead to poor monsoon rainfall, and the impact will depend largely on how rain is distributed during August and September.