Our monsoon made a strong comeback in July after a very dry June.

While June ended with a 35.4% rainfall deficit, July recorded a marginal 1% surplus, helping reduce the seasonal shortfall. However, as of August 4, the country still has a rainfall deficit of around 12.6%.

The area facing rainfall deficiency has dropped from nearly 60% in June to below 40%, but concerns remain. The IMD expects below-normal rainfall during both August and September.

Global weather models also indicate weaker monsoon activity over Central and West India, with rain shifting towards the Himalayan foothills.

A strengthening El Niño could further suppress rainfall, making it difficult for the monsoon to fully recover in the remaining season.