A very strong El Niño is intensifying in the Pacific, with the key Niño 3.4 index reaching 2.1°C.

Forecasts suggest further strengthening during October-November, with the event potentially lasting into 2027.

For India, attention is also on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has turned positive at +0.7°C. A positive IOD can influence rainfall over the Indian region and may partly offset some El Niño effects.

Meanwhile, the MJO is approaching the Indian Ocean, which could temporarily support increased cloud formation and rainfall over the Indian seas.

The combined behaviour of El Niño, IOD and MJO will remain important for India’s post-monsoon weather.