The Pacific Ocean is rapidly warming, and weather experts warn that El Niño conditions may develop much earlier than expected in 2026.

Latest forecasts show a 98% probability of El Niño during May–July, with conditions likely to persist through the rest of the year.

Sea surface temperatures across the Niño regions are rising sharply, increasing concerns about the Southwest Monsoon.

While El Niño does not always weaken rainfall, it has historically affected India’s monsoon in nearly two-thirds of past events, particularly over northern and central regions.

Other climate factors such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will also influence the season.